WEATHER

Weather Wars: NBC2, WINK rift dates to Hurricane Charley

DAVE BREITENSTEIN
DBREITENSTEIN@NEWS-PRESS.COM
Jim Farrell of WINK and Robert Van Winkle of NBC2 are meteorologists who were broadcasting on Aug. 13, 2004, when Hurricane Charley made landfall.

It’s not a case of who’s on first, rather who called it first.

Meteorologists Jim Farrell and Robert Van Winkle still disagree, more than a decade later, who was the first to declare that Hurricane Charley would strike Southwest Florida, not Tampa Bay as predicted. Their disagreement, much like Charley on the morning of Aug. 13, 2004, is only intensifying.

NBC2 began airing a promotional commercial June 1 — the first day of hurricane season — to "set the record straight," touting that Van Winkle made the call first. WINK News responded with a counter-promo not only declaring Farrell was first, but alluding to a credibility problem for NBC2.

Additional issues have surfaced this fall. Which operation was first to launch a news-gathering drone? What constitutes "live" radar? Which weather forecast is the most accurate? At one point, those disputes would have been isolated to newsroom chatter, but now they're visible in on-air promos, on websites and in your social media feeds.

It all stems back to who called Charley first.

"We got on the ball early in this case and started that call going first," Van Winkle said with authority.

"WINK was the first station in Southwest Florida," countered Farrell, pounding on the anchor desk to make a point, "to definitively say it. Not say 'Oh, it's a wobble. We've got to watch this,' but IT IS COMING!"

Why is that so important, 12 years later? Because weather draws viewers, and viewers draw ratings, and ratings draw revenue. The battle to be No. 1 is paramount in the stations' ongoing weather wars.

RELATED STORY: WINK and NBC2 race to be first, best

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Charley's Path

When Hurricane Charley emerged from western Cuba on Aug. 13, 2004, Southwest Florida was barely inside the storm's “cone of uncertainty.” The National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. advisory that day had the storm moving almost due north and on a collision course with the Tampa Bay area. Not much changed with the 8 a.m. advisory.

Charley, it seemed, was Tampa-bound.

By mid-morning, local TV stations bumped their regular programming for non-stop weather news. Waterman Broadcasting, which owns NBC2 and operates ABC7, combined weather teams for a joint broadcast airing on both channels. WINK, a CBS affiliate owned by Fort Myers Broadcasting, also featured wall-to-wall pre-Charley coverage.

Just after 9 a.m., radar appeared to show an amazingly well-defined eye edge slightly to the right. Farrell saw that in the studio at WINK, as did Van Winkle and the late Jim Reif of ABC7 from the Waterman studio. That didn't necessarily mean the storm's path was shifting, however, because tropical systems don't move in perfectly straight lines.

That north-northwest motion repeated on Charley's next 360-degree swirl. And then again.

Was Charley’s eye veering off course?

Given the topography of Florida's west coast, a shift of just 1 or 2 degrees to the northeast could push Charley's landfall 100 miles south. And it did.

DOWNLOAD: Hurricane Hub app

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Calling The Turn

The National Hurricane Center provides an official forecast for tropical systems, and the world's leading hurricane specialists create its tracking maps, warnings and predictions. NHC advisories essentially are the weather bible for meteorologists.

Although Robert Van Winkle and Jim Farrell are well-respected, experienced meteorologists, they are weathermen working in a mid-sized market — No. 61 nationally. Who are they to go against the national experts?

Jim Farrell, chief meteorologist at WINK-TV in Fort Myers.

Shortly after 10 a.m. on Aug. 13, 2004, WINK's weather team discussed those north-northeast movements. Southwest Florida was not prepared for a major Category 4 storm in Charley; it was supposed to be a Tampa problem. Farrell felt compelled to rush his belief to the airwaves, but knew if he issued a "run for the hills" warning and was incorrect, his credibility would be shot and he'd be a pariah in the weather business.

"You still have to have the nerve to go on live TV and say that," Farrell said. "If you're wrong, you might be washed up."

Meanwhile, about 4 miles to the north, Reif and Van Winkle hastily called a meeting with Steve Pontius, Waterman's executive vice president and general manager, and Darrel Lieze-Adams, vice president for news. They saw Charley's shift, too, and knew whatever advanced warning they could offer viewers just might save lives and property.

"We didn't wait for the National Hurricane Center," Lieze-Adams said. "NBC2 and ABC7 issued a new forecast that Hurricane Charley would hit Southwest Florida."

Six hours later, Charley clipped Captiva before pummelling Punta Gorda with 150 mph winds when it made landfall at 4:45 p.m. It is the most destructive hurricane to ever strike Florida; Charley's damage estimate was $16.8 billion.

READ MOREHard Lessons: A look back at Hurricane Charley

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The 'First' Promos

TV stations often air promotional commercials that feature anchors championing their experience, reporters showcasing their exclusive stories and meteorologists touting their ability to predict foul weather. According to its employment portal, Waterman is seeking a promotions producer to create more of those segments.

NBC2's "first" promo debuted June 1, a calculated move to reinforce that NBC2 is the go-to station to follow during hurricane season. A YouTube clip of that promo is below:

Robert Van Winkle, senior chief meteorologist at NBC-2 (WBBH) in Fort Myers.

"I don't think we ever had the question of who made that call," Lieze-Adams said. "It was Robert and Jim Rief. Had it not been for that call, a lot of people's lives could have been lost."

In a competitive market, journalists — meteorologists included — keep one eye on the other guys. Farrell watched the NBC2 promo, and it upset him.

"I know what happened, and that is just a blatant falsehood from an organization that should be concerned about credibility," Farrell said.

It wasn't Farrell's idea, but WINK management launched a counter-promo that doesn't just boast about Farrell's weather acumen, but also questions that if NBC2 misrepresents the facts about Charley, are there other stories in which the station misleads viewers?

While NBC2 provided YouTube links to The News-Press, WINK declined to release its weather promos.

Farrell, who worked for the local NBC affiliate in the 1980s, explains that trust is everything in the news business. That's why he wants to set the record straight, even if the events of Aug. 13, 2004, may have faded from viewers' memory.

"There are some people in this world who think that if you tell a lie long enough, often enough and convincingly enough, you will succeed and change people's minds, or plant the seed of mistruth," Farrell said.

POLL: Which Southwest Florida TV station was first to call Hurricane Charley's turn?

Finding the Tape

The News-Press asked NBC2 and WINK to produce the tape, with a time stamp, showing their meteorologists "making the call." Based on interviews with representatives of both stations, the on-air call would have occurred early in the 10 o'clock hour on Aug. 13, 2004.

Neither station, however, could provide video evidence despite broadcasting nonstop before, during and after Charley made landfall.

"We have every minute of that broadcast, except about 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.," Farrell said. "I call them the lost episodes. Whether somebody forgot to roll the tape and record those couple of hours, whether somebody took that tape, I looked high and low. I could not find it."

One of Farrell's pre-storm segments still appears on YouTube.

That video was a call, Farrell said, but not "the call." Based on the radar loop in the background, that clip was recorded between 11:15 a.m. and 11:20 a.m. It was not the first time he said Charley would strike the region, Farrell affirms. How can he tell? Because that clip shows him making a prediction with confidence and conviction, like he already had uttered the warning multiple times.

“By the time that clip is captured, I'm pretty much pounding the table,” Farrell said. "There is no doubt in my voice, in my mind and in my heart."

NBC2 doesn't have its tape, either. The station has plenty of footage from that day's broadcast, but not a clip showing "the call."

That's because there wasn't a single defining moment where Charley's path suddenly shifted from Tampa to Punta Gorda. Instead, Van Winkle says his warnings to viewers grew more stern each time he went on the air

"The process of calling the turn started early in the morning, and we just kept it up until we tracked that thing right over Desoto County and up to Orlando," Van Winkle said.

Lieze-Adams added that "it's tedious to compete with a company that thinks it's OK not to be truthful," but the WINK counter-promo, which features Van Winkle on set, took it a step too far.

"Their overreaction to our spot has been surprising," Lieze-Adams said. "It's disappointing to us that ethically this is how they responded."

Both stations have anecdotal evidence from residents who said they heard Farrell, Van Winkle or Reif say it first, but again, none has a tape showcasing that definitive call.

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None of the above?

Here is a possibility to consider: perhaps none of them were first.

NBC2, ABC7 and WINK weren't the only stations on the air or online before Charley made landfall.

In Orlando, chief meteorologist Tom Terry with WFTV reported to work about 10:30 a.m. on Aug. 13, 2004, and immediately began discussing Charley's turn with his colleagues, who already were on the air. Then the NHC released its 11 a.m. advisory still forecasting a Tampa landfall.

"Once the Hurricane Center came out with that advisory, we knew it was wrong and had to correct it," Terry said. "We physically put a new track together, a hand-drawn track."

Perhaps Tom Terry was first.

To the west in Tampa, Steve Jerve, chief meteorologist with WFLA, met at 9:30 a.m. with two forecasters who worked the overnight shift.

"The first thing they said was the storm has already turned," Jerve recalled. "You could see the eye of the hurricane had already turned east."

Jerve went on the air to tell viewers the storm's path had shifted.

Perhaps Steve Jerve was first.

In Southwest Florida, former Fox 4 meteorologist Dave Roberts had been studying Charley's forecast ever since the Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on Aug. 9, 2004. Two days out, Roberts knew Charley would be problematic, and predicted it would impact Southwest Florida.

According to a Naples Daily News story published in print Aug. 12: "The bad news is that the storm might make landfall in Lee or Charlotte counties, putting Collier County on the most destructive side of the hurricane, Roberts said." That paraphrased comment was spoken about 48 hours before landfall.

"Charley's turn to Southwest Florida was not a surprise to me," Roberts said last month. "I was calling it before 10 o'clock in the morning."

Perhaps Dave Roberts was first.

Or was it Booch DeMarchi, who was quoted in The News-Press' Aug. 12 print edition with an onerous prediction.

"It looks like Lee County is the bull's-eye on the target, and we're going to take a hit," said DeMarchi, former spokesman for Lee's emergency operations center.

Perhaps Booch Demarchi was first.

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Declaring a Truce

Without a tape, though, WINK and NBC2 may never resolve their debate over the Charley call. Don't expect the stations to declare a truce, though, for lack of evidence.

"There is no truce to call," Lieze-Adams said.

Waterman staffers monitored the various broadcasts on Aug. 13, 2004, and Lieze-Adams said Farrell's "call" came 30 minutes after Van Winkle and Reif began reporting Charley's turn.

Farrell rejects Waterman's attempt at convincing viewers that its meteorologists were first.

"That's not true. Prove it," Farrell said. "Are we journalists? Do the facts matter? Prove it."

A truce also is out of the question for WINK manager Mark Gilson.

"Will NBC2 ever advertise that they made a false claim that Van Winkle called Charley first?" Gilson asked. "That’s misleading to the people of Southwest Florida."

5-Day Forecast: The News-Press weather page, powered by AccuWeather

Five months after Charley's arrival, The News-Press issued its "Job Well Done" award in honor of that courageous weather forecast. Who earned the award? It was a three-way tie, with WINK, ABC7 and NBC2 sharing the honor.

"Who was first?" asks Wayne Sallade, Charlotte County's emergency management director. "Who cares? At this point, what difference does it make."

Bob Sheets, who retired in 1995 as director of the National Hurricane Center, watched the wall-to-wall Charley broadcasts from his Lake Placid home in Highlands County. He isn't keen on the "first" promos.

"When lives are at stake, whoever made the call first is not what's important," Sheets said.

Even Van Winkle, who remains adamant that Waterman's team was first to call Charley, admits the key that day was sounding the alarm.

"All of us saved lives that day," Van Winkle said. "We all kicked butt."

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Although The News-Press and Naples Daily News are both owned by Gannett and part of the USA TODAY Network, each operation maintains an informal relationship with a TV station. The News-Press partners with WINK News, while the Naples Daily News partners with NBC2.