Clinton's unfavorability rating could hurt Senate candidate Murphy
WASHINGTON – Hillary Clinton’s high unfavorability ratings in Florida could hurt Democrat Patrick Murphy’s chances of unseating GOP Sen. Marco Rubio in November.
At least Rubio’s campaign thinks so.
Minutes after the Treasure Coast congressman told a CNN reporter Tuesday that he has total trust in Clinton, Rubio’s campaign shot out a news release saying Murphy's comment shows he's out of step with most voters.
"How can Patrick Murphy stand with Hillary Clinton when, over and over again, she's proven to be untrustworthy?" Rubio told the network.
Rubio vs. Murphy expected to be nasty, pivotal affair
Until now, it was assumed that Clinton’s presence atop the Florida ballot would be a net positive for Murphy, who’s still relatively unknown in much of the state. Polls show Clinton with a narrow but consistent lead over Republican Donald Trump, and presidential candidates traditionally help fellow party members in down-ballot races.
Most analysts say Rubio will have more trouble shaking off the high unfavorable ratings of his party's presidential nominee -- Donald Trump -- than Murphy will have dealing with Clinton's negatives, especially among the state’s large Hispanic population.
But questions about Clinton's actions when she was secretary of state -- she used a private email server for government business, and emails show that donors to the Clinton Foundation obtained access to her or her top aides -- continue to keep her favorability numbers low.
Donald Trump may hurt Marco Rubio’s re-election chances
In what could be good news for endangered Republican senators this fall, most Clinton supporters say they're likely to split the ticket — that is, vote for the Democratic presidential candidate while supporting down-ballot GOP candidates.
In a nationwide USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, 32% of Clinton's supporters said they're “very likely” to split their votes, and 20% say they’re “somewhat" likely to do so. Twenty percent say they are “not very likely” to split the ticket, and 23% say they'll vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
Most polls show Murphy trailing Rubio by a few percentage points.
Murphy’s campaign said he has no plans to distance himself from Clinton. And Democratic strategist Steve Schale of Tallahassee doesn’t think he should, given Clinton’s overall lead in the polls.
“For Murphy to win, he just needs to get the vast majority of people that are voting for Hillary Clinton,” said Schale, who is not affiliated with the Clinton or the Murphy campaign. “For Rubio, he’s going to have to be careful he doesn’t alienate Clinton voters because he’ll have to win a few percent of them to win this thing.”
An important trend in Murphy’s favor: the last three Democratic nominees for Senate who ran in a presidential year outperformed the top of the ticket.
“I would much rather be starting knowing that my nominee’s likely to win at the top of the ticket,” Schale said.
Polls show Florida independents, the voters expected to decide both the presidential and Senate races, aren’t particularly thrilled with Clinton.
A Quinnipiac poll released in early August found that 60% of likely independent voters in the Sunshine State viewed Clinton unfavorably compared to 33% who gave her a thumbs-up. A Monmouth University poll released in mid-August found a similar gap of 51-28%.
The same Monmouth poll also found that only one-quarter of the state's independent voters had formed an opinion of Murphy, but 75% of those voters who had viewed him favorably.
Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, said it’s possible Clinton might not have any coattails to help Murphy and could even be a drag on his chances if she starts to fall in the polls.
For now, though, Jewett said Murphy’s wise to stick close to Clinton
“The Clintons have a pretty good track record in Florida and seem to have a good connection with the voters here,” he said. “For the time being, I would say, yeah, embrace the ticket and run with it. But be ready to depart at a moment’s notice.”
Contributing: Susan Page, USA TODAY
Contact Ledyard King at lking@gannett.com; Twitter:@ledgeking