Height of hurricane season on the horizon

The height of hurricane season is upon us, and experts warn that Florida's 11-year lucky streak may soon be over.

Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Collier County in 2005 – when George W. Bush was in the first year of his second term, Michael Phelps only had six Olympic gold medals, and the 2017 high school graduate class had just started first grade.

"That was not only the last major hurricane to hit Florida but the last hurricane," said Dennis Feltgen, with the National Hurricane Center. "But that remarkable streak is going to end."

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This season has been active, but Floridians have had few reasons to shutter the house and head for a hurricane shelter.

"We’ve had six named storms so far, that includes Alex, but not major hurricanes yet," Feltgen said. "For the number of named storms and the number of hurricanes we are running a little bit faster than an average year."

The next eight weeks or so could spell an end to the streak as we are entering the statistical peak of the tropical storm season.

Sept. 11 is the day on which tropical storms and hurricanes are most likely to be active, and the three weeks before and after that day are some of the most dangerous of the year.

There are no scientific explanations as to why or how Florida has dodged large systems for more than a decade. A strong El Nino system kept storms at bay last year, but that weather phase is no longer in place.

Two disturbances and a named system are active in the Atlantic Ocean.

As ocean temperatures begin to cool over the next month, the Gulf of Mexico becomes the focal point as warm water in the Gulf make storm formation more likely here.

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This year has been relatively active, although storms have veered away from the Sunshine State.

An average year brings 12 named systems, with six of those becoming hurricanes – and three of those being Category 3 or higher.

Flooding is one of the most dangerous facets of tropical storms and hurricanes.

But how would this area handle a large tropical storm or hurricane?

Emergency managers are worried that a decade without a hurricane will create complacency with the public. Also, Lee and Collier counties have added almost 200,000 more residents who have never been through a storm or have had to evacuate.

And then there is the water issue. Heavy winter rains forced water managers to release water from Lake Okeechobee to the east and west.

The east coast was hit by algae blooms that turned the waters green. Water flowing down the Caloosahatchee didn't cause the same harm, but word about dirty water hurt tourism.

A hurricane with heavy rains could force water managers to release more water east and west.

"Lake Okeechobee is probably the starting point and it’s hovering around 15 feet (above sea level) at this point," said Randy Smith, South Florida Water Management District spokesman. "And the water conservation areas (between the lake and Everglades National Park) are at or just a little bit above their schedule."

The Army Corps of Engineers manages Lake Okeechobee levels, and current protocols says the lake should be kept between 12.5 and 15.5 feet above sea level, when possible.

Smith said the water management district is prepared to move water through its system of canals when and if a storm threatens.

"We’re in pretty good shape for the regional canals, and those are adjustable," Smith said. "So when we get an accurate forecast, the managers will make adjustments to the canals to prepare for the anticipated rainfall."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its 2016 forecast earlier this month. It says the agency expects a total of 12 to 17 named storms and five to eight hurricanes, with two to four of those hurricanes becoming Category 3 or higher.

Connect with this reporter: Chad Gillis on Facebook. 

Florida hurricane history

11: Years with no hurricanes is a record 

5: Years is the longest period with no hurricanes prior to this record streak 

40: Percent of storms that make landfall impact the Sunshine State 

7: Hurricanes hit Florida in 2004 and 2005

26: Hurricanes have formed since Wilma hit in 2005 

Source: The Weather Channel