Southwest Florida, where Democratic campaigns go to die

First comes the high: Local Democratic convention delegates are on hand in Philadelphia, the nation's first capital, for the historic nomination of a woman as presidential candidate of a major political party.

Then reality strikes: They return to Southwest Florida, where their party's political campaigns go to die.

"Lee County doesn't give much support to its Democratic candidates," said April Freeman, running for Congress in the redrawn 17th Congressional District, which includes a small slice of northeast Lee County, as well as parts of a half dozen other counties. Freeman, a Republican turned Democrat, lost two years ago when beaten by Curt Clawson, R-Bonita Springs, in District 19, 62.4 percent to 34.6 percent.

Freeman's defeat was hardly a surprise, considering Democratic voters are overwhelmingly outnumbered, Democratic candidates are few and Democratic victories are nonexistent.

Democrats account for just 27 percent of the registered voters in Lee County, while 42 percent are Republican. Thirty percent are not affiliated with any party. Over the past 20 years, both parties have increased enrollment by 51 percent.  But while in 1996 there were 40,579 more Republicans than Democrats, by 2016 the difference in party enrollment was more than 60,000.

The story is even worse in Collier County where Republicans outnumber Democrats more than 2 to 1 and no party affiliated voters outnumber Democrats.

The Republican edge in voter registration translates into big ballot victories, For example, over the past more than two decades, no Republican candidate for Congress has received less than 60 percent of the vote.

In presidential elections Lee County has preferred Republicans to Democrats since 1948, when Dixiecrats bolted the party over a civil rights platform adopted at the Democratic National Convention. Lee County voters that year gave Republican Thomas Dewey a 39-32 percent plurality, as traditional Democratic votes were siphoned off by Dixiecrat candidate Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina.

Since 1948, Republicans have consistently out-polled Democrats in the county in presidential elections, falling below a countywide majority only when there were third-party candidates George Wallace of Alabama in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996.

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Joseph Wells, 84, a native Floridian now living in Cape Coral  is a delegate to the Democratic convention, and sees his party caught in a cycle that isn't easily broken.

"First somebody has to stand up — and it's hard to stand up and get in the process when you 90 percent expect defeat,"  Wells said.

A long-time railroad union official, Wells is a self-professed "liberal leaning" delegate in a party that some have come to consider a bit too left-leaning.

""There’s no Republican I would consider voting for for anything right now," he said.

Increased ideological purity among party activists may be prevalent in both parties, but may take a greater toll on Democrats, whose positions in recent decades have drifted away from tradition. Republicans tend to resist challenge to the established order of society.

Shifting population, shifting politics

Fort Myers lobbyist Keith Arnold, who was elected to the state Legislature at the age of 28 as a Democrat, left the party because, he said, it had drifted away from him and the rest of middle America, toward the doctrinaire political left and away from its legacy lunch-bucket Democrats.

"We’ve seen the Democratic Party evolve from the party that was more blue-collar oriented, as it was in the heyday of Roosevelt and continuing into the 1960s and 70s, to one that was galvanized more by left-leaning  politics rather than mainstream America," Arnold said. "Both parties have moved further apart from each other."

Consultant and business executive Cole Peacock, whose clients have included Democrats and Republicans, says the changing demographics of Southwest Florida may have a lot to do with the lack of success for Democrats in recent years.

"Historically, the state of Florida was Democratic, but once the population shift came in from the Midwest, the more conservative values, the traditional Midwestern values, shifted voter registration," Peacock said.

Now consulting Republican congressional candidate Chauncy Goss, Peacock said that the Democratic Party has struggled to find its niche with the new population of Southwest Florida, while Republicans were able to strike a cord with the Midwesterners.

"The Republican Party said these values match our core values, we can switch a bit here," Peacock said. "Traditionally Republican values may not be pro environment, but it is in the environment we live in now"

Few on ballot

In a presidential election year, when turnout is at its highest, Democrats have failed to field a candidate in most races on the ballot.

Robert Neeld is running as the Democratic candidate for Congress in the 19th Congressional District; he has run and lost three times in the past. His fate doesn't appear likely to change. Neeld had less than $2,000 in his self-financed campaign fund. Potential Republican opponents include candidates who have access to millions.

Three Lee County commissioners are up for re-election, but only one Democrat is running. That candidate, Diane Zigrossi of Lehigh Acres, is vastly underfunded, taking in less that $10,000, compared to more than $70,000 for incumbent Frank Mann who faces a Republican challenger in the August primary.

Local campaigns for state representative have also drawn only a single Democrat candidate. In House District 79, John Scott is challenging incumbent Republican Matt Caldwell, whose campaign treasury of more than a quarter of a million dollars and unaffiliated candidate Matt Miller, who put up $200,000 of his own money for a race for county commissioner before switching to the state representative race.

Ray Judah was elected as a Democrat in 1988, switched to the Republican party at mid-term, and was re-elected five times as a Republican.  He sees the established parties as becoming more ideological, driven in part by special interest money. Judah, and others, attribute his defeat four years ago to spending by political action committees sympathetic to agribusiness.

"I see a transformation taking place throughout this county and this party," Judah said. "The number of people who have left the Republican Party to register as an independent — that it is telling me that finally people are looking at the issues and the person, as opposed to the party."

Judah said the region's water crisis may lead to a Democratic resurgence. His supporters have blamed spending groups connected to the sugar industry for his defeat. Judah says PAC spending supports policies he blames for problems with Caloosahatchee River water that threaten the region's tourism- and real estate-driven economy.

"It's going to take a crisis to change that mindset," Judah said. "Sooner or later we’re past the tipping point with the dirty water crisis, people will start to recognize that the public party is in power locally and statewide and look what’s happening to our water."

Lee County Democatic delegate Sandra McClinton also sees the rising concern over environmental issues in Southwest Florida as a spot on the political spectrum that the Democrats need to occupy.

"We’re the ones who are fighting against fracking, pushing for clean water, "  McClinton said. "Democrats are more for protecting the environment, some Republicans don't  even believe in global warming."

Back to political basics

Democratic activists are worried that the party doldrums may self-perpetuate. Freeman, the congressional candidate, says the Democrats have had trouble getting their message out when they are routinely outspent by Republicans.

"In order to put together a viable message, you have to know how to reach those people," she said. That takes training and time to perfect and get to the point where you can approach someone and talk about issues, the Democratic people don't actually do that."

Freeman said the party should already be looking to 2018.

"They need to start that six months ago for the next election cycle in two years." she said.

But Arnold said that what Democrats need to change is even more fundamental than how the message is delivered, and Democrats need to focus on what the message says about core beliefs. He notes that people who are Democrats have an easier time winning non-partisan elections such as school board.

"When  you look at the fact that saying you have no party is better than saying your are a Democrat, the evidence is pretty stark, at least right now," he said.

Presidential Elections
Lee County Results

2012
Romney (R)  57.5%
Obama(D) 41.3%

2008
McCain (R) 54.7%
Obama (D) 44.2%

2004
Bush (R)  59.9%
Kerry (D) 39.0%

2000
Bush (R) 57.6%
Gore (D)  39.9%

1996
Dole (R) 48.8%
Clinton (D) 39.6%

1992*
Bush (R) 44.2%
Clinton (D) 32.3%

1988
Bush (R) 67.7%
Dukakis (D) 31.6%

1984
Reagan (R) 73.9%
Mondale (D) 31.6%

1980*
Reagan (R) 64,5%
Carter (D) 29.7%

1976
Ford (R)  54.5%
Carter (D) 43.8%

1972
Nixon (R) 79.5%
McGovern (D) 20.3%

1968*
Nixon (R) 46.2%
Humphrey (D) 25.7%

1964
Goldwater (R) 55.8%
Johnson (D) 44.2%

1960
Nixon (R) 65.3%
Kennedy (D) 34.7%

1956

Eisenhower (R) 62.6%
Stevenson (D) 37.4%

1952
Eisenhower (R) 59.1%
Stevenson ​(D) 40.9%

1948*
Dewey (R) 39.3%
Truman (D) 32.5%

1944
Dewey (R) 35.7 %
Roosevelt (D) 64.3%
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* Not including third party