Exclusive: Clawson has 2-1 lead in GOP race

• 38 percent of respondents said they%27d vote for Clawson.
• Benacquisto%2C Dreikorn and Kreegel follow with 19%2C 18 and 17 percent%2C respectively.
• Poll asked 669 likely voters who will get their vote.
• Voters also say negative ads didn%27t help.

Curt Clawson, who has outspent his opponents two-to-one, has taken that same margin into Tuesday's special Republican congressional primary, according to a poll of likely voters.

With 38 percent of respondents saying they'd vote for him, Clawson received double the support of second-place candidate Lizbeth Benacquisto (19 percent), who was nearly neck-and-neck with Michael Dreikorn (18 percent) and Paige Kreegel (17 percent).

The exclusive News-Press and WINK News poll was released Friday. Seven percent of voters said they were undecided.

The telephone poll of 669 likely voters was conducted Monday-Wednesday by Public Policy Polling, of Raleigh, N.C. Only registered Republicans who said they were certain or likely to vote in the primary were surveyed.

The margin of error is 3.8 percent.

"It's definitely significant when you have one candidate polling at 38 percent. In a four-candidate field, that's pretty good," said Jim Williams, polling analyst for Public Policy Polling.

Experts in Florida politics said that with the rapid pace that comes a few days before an election, those numbers could waver.

But they agree Clawson's lead is telling.

"When you have a crowded race, there's not a lot of consensus on a candidate. But what is really clear is that people picked a newer face and one that spent the most. If you add up the 38 percent (for Clawson) and the 18 (for Dreikorn), over half the people want a new face. The status quo is unacceptable to a lot of voters anymore," Susan MacManus, a political science professor at University of South Florida, said.

Benacquisto is a state senator representing Fort Myers, while Kreegel, who ran for Congress in 2012, is a former state legislator.

Clawson swept the board, beating his opponents across all demographics. Men and women both chose him, as did all age groups and voters describing themselves as "somewhat liberal" and as "very conservative."

Likewise, other polls done of District 19 have shown Clawson taking the lead, though not at such a wide margin.

Some highlights:

Negativity didn't fly

Voters think the race has been too negative.

Eighty-eight percent of men, who made up 52 percent of the survey, and 89 percent of women, who made up 48 percent, agreed.

The older the voter, the more they were likely to find the campaign too negative, from 82 percent of 18- to 45-year-olds surveyed (about 14 percent of the group surveyed) to 87 percent of 46- to 65-year-olds and (36 percent of those surveyed) and 90 percent of those over 65 (50 percent of survey group).

Voters across the political spectrum agreed too, from 97 percent of respondents who described themselves as "somewhat liberal" to 88 percent of people who said they are "very conservative."

Negative ads can work — but only up to a point, experts said.

Many of Clawson's ads did negatively focus on his opponents. But they also included positive messages about Clawson, which is often a more effective combination than negative-only campaigning, said FGCU political science professor Peter Bergerson.

Twitter war: Connie Mack claims Benacquisto aide lied

Don't expect negative campaign ads to stop

Negative ads have a saturation point after which they likely won't make much of a difference, MacManus said. "More is not necessarily better if everything's negative."

Staying out of the mud may have been a factor for Dreikorn, who refrained from slinging it and didn't become a target. Dreikorn was nearly invisible for much of the campaign, spending nearly nothing and releasing no ads while his opponents spent millions.

Clawson won over very conservative voters

All four candidates touted their conservative credentials in ads, mailers or during forums, but it was Clawson's message that won over the most conservative.

Voters who described themselves as somewhat conservative or very conservative were more likely to vote for Clawson than his opponents, according to the poll.

Clawson polled at 39 percent among somewhat conservative voters and 41 percent among very conservative voters.

Parker on politics: Clawson ponies up own money

Benacquisto polled at 18 percent for somewhat conservative voters and 21 percent of very conservative voters; Kreegel got 18 percent and 19 percent from those groups; and Dreikorn received 18 and 13 percent.

Of the survey group, 78 percent described themselves as somewhat or very conservative.

Dreikorn surprisingly ranked highest among voters who described themselves as somewhat liberal, polling at 28 percent, followed by Clawson at 23, Benacquisto at 22 and Kreegel at 18 percent. Dreikorn had the strongest anti-immigration stance, a hot-button issue among conservatives.

Conservative voters are likely bolstering Clawson's support in the district, said Williams.

"It looks like Mr. Clawson has really been able to consolidate those very conservative voters where he's kind of drawing his lead from that," he said. "And in this district, folks that identify as very conservative are the folks you want to go after as there's just the most of them."

Women and men picked Clawson

Benacquisto has said in her campaign that bringing another Republican woman to Congress, where there are only 19 others, would be beneficial for Southwest Florida's representation.

A PAC supporting her produced ads and mailers stating male opponents have bullied her. She also received Sarah Palin's endorsement. But she failed to snag the support of women in the poll, who picked Clawson at 37 percent to Benacquisto's 20 percent.

Kreegel was just behind her with 19 percent of the female vote. Dreikorn received 15 percent.

Men picked Clawson at 39 percent and Benacquisto at 19 percent, followed by Dreikorn with 21 percent and Kreegel with 14.

Despite popular sentiment, "one of the myths of politics is that there's such a thing as a 'women's vote' that's very cohesive politically," MacManus said.

Election 2014: Clawson shows up at opponents' event

But MacManus was somewhat surprised Republican women couldn't cohere behind her, and Bergerson agreed. He speculated it could be because of the negative advertising. MacManus believes the choice had less to do with Benacquisto's gender than she holds office.

"When all the dust is settled, the poll suggests conservative voters are dissatisfied with anyone who's held office regardless of gender," she said.

Collier and Lee agree

Clawson had the strongest support in Collier County — 50 percent versus 33 percent in Lee — but he still took both counties. Clawson lives in the south part of Lee County and received support from Byron Donalds, who was the top vote-getter in Collier when he ran in 2012 for the congressional seat.

Kreegel was a distant second in Collier with 23 percent, followed by Benacquisto with 12 percent and Dreikorn with 10. Benacquisto and Dreikorn both polled at 22 percent in Lee, and Kreegel got 15 percent there.

Most voters saw differences amongst candidates

Despite their shared party affiliation and similar outlook on many issues, 58 percent of voters polled said they saw significant differences between the four candidates. The more conservative a voter, the more they noticed the difference.

That's likely due to a couple factors. For one, voters often become more interested as elections draw closer, Williams said. And, said Bergerson, two groups that were prominent in the poll — highly conservative voters and those over the age of 65 — are often the most informed.

"When someone forms this very strong political ideology, they then focus in on the details and the specifics of candidates. They distinguish not only the things they like about this candidate, but things they don't like about the other," he said.

About the pollster

Public Policy Polling surveyed voters in the District 19 Republican primary in August 2012.

It found voters favored Trey Radel 25 percent , followed by Paige Kreegel with 23 percent, Gary Aubuchon with 16 percent, Chauncey Goss with 14 percent, Byron Donalds with 13 percent and Joe Davidow with 2 percent.

On election day the numbers were similar with one exception: Radel earned 29.9, followed by Chauncey Goss (21.5 percent), Paige Kreegel (17.7 percent), Gary Aubuchon (15.5 percent), Byron Donalds (13.9 percent) and Joe Davidow (1.4 percent)

In November 2012, Fordham University's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy ranked Public Policy Polling the most accurate pollster of the 2012 presidential race. The study compared pre-election polling and actual election results.

FGCU political science professor Peter Bergerson cautioned that a poll in a special election primary can be less of a predictor of actual election results than a regular primary.

"Even though registered voters said they're likely to vote or will be voting, that doesn't necessarily hold true," Bergerson said. "I'm not saying that the methodology is bad, I'm saying the traditional sample is, in this type of election, hard to create and develop ... getting a good sample in a special election is the riddle inside the enigma."

Profiles of the candidates

Curt Clawson: Businessman's life has been series of turnarounds

Paige Kreegel: Doctor says he has cure for what ails Obamacare

Lizbeth Benacquisto: Neighborly candidate viewed as driven, yet nice

Michael Dreikorn: 'Grass-roots' guy manages to stay out of mud